SEI: The Production Gap Report 2025
02.10.2025
Governments plan to produce 120% the volume of fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C, and 77% more than would be consistent with 2°C, according to the 2025 Production Gap Report.
That amounts to a widening of the gap since the 2023 analysis, which highlighted a 110% and 69% gap over 1.5°C and 2°C warming limits, respectively.
The continued collective failure of governments to curb fossil fuel production and lower global emissions means that future production will need to decline more steeply to compensate. Reaching net zero greenhouse gas emissions in the second half of the century, as the Paris Agreement calls for, will require cutting fossil fuel production and use to the very lowest levels possible.
Governments plan to produce around 120% more fossil fuels in 2030 than would be consistent with limiting warming to 1.5°C, and 77% more than would be consistent with 2°C. Illustration: SEI and One Visual Mind
The 2025 report provides updated profiles for 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Germany, India, Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway, Qatar, the Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America.
While six of these countries are now developing scenarios for domestic fossil fuel production aligned with national and global net zero targets, most continue to plan fossil fuel production at levels inconsistent with their net zero climate ambitions.
To access the full report click HERE